S&P 500

Regime Pulse

Detecting structural shifts before the market moves.

A quantitative seismograph for the S&P 500. Measures structural stress that precedes major drawdowns — typically 50 days before the market feels it.

Get Started

10/11

Major S&P 500 drops caught in 30 years

~50d

Typical early warning

100%

Validation consistency

The system's core filter was independently validated across six out-of-sample test periods, producing identical results each time.

4 states

Directional regime tracking

How It Works

Like a seismograph for the S&P 500, the system measures structural stress across two independent detection channels. It classifies conditions into four directional states — each with distinct historical return characteristics. You always know not just where conditions are, but which direction they're heading.

The system runs daily. Most of the time, the needle barely moves. When structural stress builds, you'll see the reading shift from quiet through tremors to full seismic activity — and back through aftershocks to calm as conditions normalize.

What to Expect

CLEAR

Regime Normal

Ground stable — no structural activity detected. Both detection channels quiet.

DETERIORATING

Conditions Weakening

Tremors detected — early signs of structural instability. The system is monitoring.

ALERT

Regime Deterioration

Seismic event — confirmed structural breakdown. Historically associated with S&P 500 drawdowns.

RECOVERING

Conditions Normalizing

Aftershocks subsiding — conditions stabilizing. The system is tracking the recovery timeline.

When the system detects deterioration repeatedly within a short period, conviction escalates. First alerts carry standard conviction. Recurring alerts within the same window carry elevated or high conviction — historically associated with significantly higher detection rates.

Detection Track Record

Jan 2022 Detected deterioration 25 days before rate-hike drawdown — S&P 500 fell 25%
Feb 2020 Detected deterioration 39 days before COVID crash — S&P 500 fell 34%
Jan 2018 Detected deterioration 51 days before Volmageddon — S&P 500 fell 10%
Aug 2015 Detected deterioration 14 days before China devaluation shock — S&P 500 fell 12%
Aug 2011 Detected deterioration 42 days before European debt crisis drawdown — S&P 500 fell 19%
Sep 2008 Detected deterioration 83 days before Lehman collapse (second signal) — S&P 500 fell 41%
Oct 2007 Detected deterioration 88 days before GFC onset — S&P 500 fell 18% in initial decline
Mar 2000 Detected deterioration 53 days before dot-com peak — S&P 500 fell 49%
Jul 1998 Detected deterioration 116 days before LTCM crisis — S&P 500 fell 19%
Oct 1997 Detected deterioration 42 days before Asian financial crisis — S&P 500 fell 11%

One major event not detected: September 2001. The system requires structural deterioration to build over time — exogenous shocks with no prior market stress fall outside its detection scope.

Pricing

Founding Member Rate

First 100 subscribers — locked for life

$49/month

$29/month

$499/year $249/year

Save $99/year with annual

100 of 100 remaining

Real-time S&P 500 regime dashboard with four directional states
Instant Telegram and email alerts on regime transitions
Conviction tiers — escalating signal strength based on pattern recurrence
Full signal history and transition log
30-year detection track record documentation

Join Waitlist

Standard pricing of $49/month ($499/year) takes effect after the first 100 members.

Founding rate is maintained as long as your subscription remains active. Rate resets to standard pricing if subscription lapses.

Institutional & Advisory

Custom signal integration for RIAs, family offices, and institutional teams.

API access, methodology documentation, compliance-ready materials, and dedicated support.